Betting on the Niners: Propositions galore
How high can they go? You can bet on Morgan, Davis
How high can they go? You can bet on Morgan, Davis
NinersDigest.com publisher
Posted Sep 2, 2011


Want to bet on the 49ers this year? Well, the online sportsbook at Bodog.eu just came out with a bushel of proposition bets you can wager on the team’s individual players this season. And if you feel like taking a chance, some of them look fairly attractive if you’re laying your money down on certain Niners.


Bodog lists 15 different prop bets on eight different San Francisco players, with all of the over/under propositions based on 2011 regular-season performance. Some of them come across as better than others, and here we take a look at each by player.

QB Alex Smith


Total Passing Yards in 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under……….2,850
Bet analysis: Smith could easily reach this number in Jim Harbaugh’s West Coast offense if he avoids injury and plays a full season. Smith surpassed this total when he threw for a career-high 2,890 yards while playing every offensive snap in 2006, Smith’s second NFL season, when San Francisco’s offense was based around the running of Frank Gore, who rushed for a franchise-record 1,695 yards that year. Smith threw for 2,350 yards in 2009 and 2,370 yards last season, playing in only 11 games each year.

Total Passing Touchdowns in 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under……….17
Bet analysis: Smith’s career high is 18 TD passes in 2009. He had 16 in 2006. He’ll have another effective red-zone target to potentially boost this number this season with the addition of wide receiver Braylon Edwards.

Total Interceptions thrown in 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under……….13 ½
Bet analysis: Smith’s career high is 16 in 2006, and he has not thrown more than 12 in a season since, throwing 10 in 342 pass attempts last season. He figures to put the ball in the air a lot more this year in Harbaugh’s offense if he remains the team’s regular quarterback.

RB Frank Gore


Total Rushing Yards in 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under……….1,050
Bet analysis: Even with a new weapon behind him in rookie Kendall Hunter – who appears likely to take away some of Gore’s carries this year – Gore would seem a lock to surpass this number if he stays healthy and plays an entire season. That didn’t happen last year when Gore fractured his hip in late November, ending his season after 11 games. Gore had 853 yards rushing at that point and was well on his way to a fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season before the injury. If Gore were to hit his career average of 4.7 yards per carry this season, he would need only 224 attempts to hit the over.

Total Rushing Touchdowns in 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under……….7
Bet analysis: Gore is not known to do his best work around the goal line. He scored eight rushing touchdowns on a career-high 312 carries in 2006, a carry total he’s unlikely to approach this year. His career high is 10 rushing TDs on 229 carries in 2009. The 49ers might go more often in short-yardage, goal-line situations to Anthony Dixon, who had two 1-yard TD plunges in Thursday’s exhibition finale at San Diego.

Total Receiving Yards in 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under……….425
Bet analysis: Gore has surpassed this total three times in his career, with a career-high 485 yards on 61 receptions in 2006. He had 452 yards receiving on 46 catches in 11 games last year. The halfback in Harbaugh’s offense figures to see regular opportunities in the passing game this year as an outlet receiver.

WR Michael Crabtree


Total Receiving Yards in 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under……….750
Bet analysis: Note that Crabtree missed all of training camp and all four exhibition games this summer with a foot injury and is just now working his way back onto the field. He could be slow to get into the receiver mix at the start of the season. Crabtree has yet to reach this total in his first two NFL seasons, finishing with career-high totals of 55 catches for 741 yards last year. His career average of 13.3 yards per catch would leave him needing 57 receptions this year to hit the over.

Total Receiving Touchdowns in 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under……….5
Bet analysis: Crabtree had a career-high six TD grabs last year among his 55 receptions. He is a big, sure-handed target in the red zone, but will share red-zone focus with Vernon Davis and Braylon Edwards.

WR Braylon Edwards


Total Receiving Yards in 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under……….750
Bet analysis: Edwards has surpassed this total four times before with two other teams in his seven-year NFL career, including a career-high 1,289 yards with the Cleveland Browns 2007. He had 904 yards on just 53 receptions last year with the New York Jets. The big question is how often the 49ers will throw Edwards the ball with Crabtree, Davis, Gore, Josh Morgan and Ted Ginn also inviting targets in the passing game.

Total Receiving Touchdowns in 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under……….7
Bet analysis: Edwards hit this exact total last year on 53 receptions. His career high is 16 TD grabs on 80 receptions in 2007. He could see plenty of red-zone opportunities because of his superior size and leaping ability.

WR Josh Morgan


Total Receiving Yards in 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under……….425
Bet analysis: Morgan had 527 yards receiving on 52 catches in 2009 and 698 yards on just 44 receptions last year, averaging 15.9 yards per reception. At that rate, he would need just 27 catches this year to hit the over. The big question is how often he’ll see the ball with so many other options available in San Francisco’s passing game.

TE Vernon Davis


Total Receiving Yards in 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under……….875
Bet analysis: Davis has surpassed this total in each of the past two seasons, with 965 yards on 78 receptions in 2009 and 914 on 56 catches last year. His 16.3 average last year would leave him needing 54 grabs this year to hit the over. Keep in mind that Harbaugh’s offensive system likes to feature the tight end, but there will be more capable targets to share the ball with this year than in any season since Davis joined the 49ers.

Total Receiving Touchdowns in 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under..........7½
Bet analysis: Red-zone targets don’t get much bigger or better than Davis. He’s also a threat to go all the way every time he goes deep over the middle. Davis had a career-high 13 TD grabs in 2009 and finished with seven last year.

LB Patrick Willis


Total Sacks in 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under……….5 ½
Bet analysis: The four-time Pro Bowl linebacker has developed into more of a playmaking threat at inside linebacker every season since he joined the Niners in 2007. He had a career-high six sacks last season, and new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s 3-4 system may give Willis more blitz opportunities this year than he’s had in previous seasons.

DE Justin Smith


Total Sacks in 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under……….7
Bet analysis: Smith was a fierce pass rusher last season, tying the career-high total of his rookie season with 8.5 sacks, and the 11th-year veteran shows no signs of slowing down. Smith had seven sacks and six sacks in his first two seasons with the 49ers after joining the team as a free agent in 2008. He’s had six or more sacks eight times in his career and seven or more five times.



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